Write down what you believe before you buy
A structured investment thesis with a measurable target, the catalysts that would prove it right or wrong, and a lifecycle that runs from draft to a definitive outcome.
The problem
You bought it for a reason. Eighteen months later the position is still there, the reason is gone, and you cannot tell whether the thesis played out or you just stopped paying attention.
How it works
- 1
State the thesis and the target
What you believe will happen, and the measurable target that would confirm it. Vague theses cannot be graded.
- 2
Name the catalysts
The specific events that would prove you right — or wrong. This is what turns a hunch into something testable.
- 3
Track it to an outcome
Draft while you research, Active when you commit, Executed when you trade, Closed with a result: win, loss, or invalidated.
Why it matters
A thesis you never wrote down cannot be wrong, which is exactly the problem — you learn nothing from it. Recording the target and the catalysts up front is what makes the review at the end meaningful, because you are comparing the outcome against what you actually believed at the time rather than a reconstruction of it.
Related reading
- Why every trade needs a thesis, and how to write oneWhat separates a testable thesis from a hunch.
- Zombie holdings: the positions you forgot why you ownThe failure mode hypotheses are designed to prevent.
- The trade review: learning from your winners and losersClosing the loop once a hypothesis reaches an outcome.
Shipped in Investment Hypotheses
Works well with
Research Notes
Notes scoped to individual ASX shares, with links back to the announcement, report, or article that informed your thinking.
Trade Import
Copy rows from your broker, paste them in, and an AI extractor pulls out dates, quantities, prices, and fees. Review everything before it is imported.